Well its that time of year again where anyone with competent motor skills and a high speed Internet connection decides to share their Oscar predictions with the rest of the world. And like the lovable lemming that I am, I am doing it too. I only predict the categories I care about and consider the “Biggies” which comes to 6 categories. Last year I went 4 for 6 (damn you Meryl Streep and guy from The Artist!!!) so I am looking to increase my average this go round.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Alan Arkin (ARGO), Robert De Niro (SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK), Philip Seymour Hoffman (THE MASTER), Tommy Lee Jones (LINCOLN), Christoph Waltz (DJANGO UNCHAINED)
Will Win: Robert De Niro
De Niro has not won an Oscar in 32 years and hasn’t even been nominated in 21 years…granted , it is mostly his own fault for the movie choices he has made. However, his performance in Playbook is about as close to an old school quality De Niro performance that we are likely to ever get so if the Academy wants to reward De Niro this is probably the last chance they will get.
Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Waltz gave a great performance in Django and owned almost every scene he was in. To me he was more fun to watch than the lead character.
Got Robbed: Leonardo DiCaprio and Samuel L. Jackson (DJANGO UNCHAINED)
These two actors played against type in DJango to stellar results. DiCaprio was simultaneously charismatic and stomach turning in his role as callous plantation owner Calvin Candy. Jackson meanwhile was able to do something I thought would never happen; he made me hate a character he was playing. As Stephen, the self-hating house slave to Candy, Jackson was possibly the most vile character on screen in 2012.
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Amy Adams (THE MASTER), Sally Field (LINCOLN), Anne Hathaway (LES MISERABLES), Helen Hunt (THE SESSIONS), Jacki Weaver (SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK)
Will Win: Sally Field
I know everyone is picking Anne Hathaway for this category but I think Field is going to take it. She’s a veteran actress who has not been in a position to win (or even be nominated) since 1984. Plus the Academy loves her.
Should Win: Sally Field
She was the emotional core of Lincoln and deserves to get her third Oscar.
Got Robbed: Nicole Kidman (THE PAPERBOY)
While the movie was nothing to write home about I thought Kidman gave a great performance that took me back to the energy she had in films like To Die For and Malice.
The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK), Daniel Day-Lewis (LINCOLN), Hugh Jackman (LES MISERABLES), Joaquin Phoenix (THE MASTER), Denzel Washington (FLIGHT)
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
I think this may be the easiest category to make a prediction on. Day-Lewis was scary good as Lincoln. he was so good that when I think of Pres. Lincoln now I immediately picture Day-Lewis. Sorry other guys (especially Hugh Jackman and Bradley Cooper) but you should all just feel happy to be nominated and start practicing their fake smiles for when the camera is on them while Day-Lewis is giving his acceptance speech.
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
The movie was underwhelming but his performance was certainly not.
Got Robbed: Jack Black (BERNIE)
Black was a revelation in Bernie. Playing a far more subdued (but no less fabulous) character than he had ever played before and completely pulling it off. This was a performance that was criminally overlooked by the Oscars.
The Nominees: Jessica Chastain (ZERO DARK THIRTY), Jennifer Lawrence (SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK), Emmanuelle Riva (AMOUR), Quvenzhané Wallis (BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD), Naomi Watts (THE IMPOSSIBLE)
Will Win: Emmanuelle Riva
She’s really old. That alone will get her the sentimental vote and besides her nomination alone led me to believe that she would win because it is for a movie that no one outside of France saw and she’s an actress that no one outside of France knows. Plus she’s really, really old.
Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Lawrence was wonderful in Playbook and to me stole the entire movie. Add to that her ability to go from playing the lead in a popular genre film (Hunger Games) to playing this multi-layered part in a quirky film like Playbook shows her range plus I think she got robbed for Winter’s Bone.
Got Robbed: Marion Cotillard (RUST AND BONE)
She played a double amputee who had her legs bitten off by a killer whale for pity’s sake! How does that not get you an Oscar nod? Playing the physically infirmed is usually a sure fire ticket to the nomination list.
The Nominees: Michael Haneke (AMOUR), Benh Zeitlin (BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD), Ang Lee (LIFE OF PI), David O. Russell (SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK), Steven Spielberg (LINCOLN)
Will Win: Steven Spielberg
Spielberg directed a big, historical drama replete with showy lead performance and the movie looked good regardless of my own personal feeling for how middling the movie was. This is the type of stuff that gives those stuffy bastards at the Academy Viagra-free stiffies so I see Spielberg’s win as a no-brainer.
Should Win: Ang Lee
No other director had to do as much as Lee did for Life of Pi and the fact that he did it so wonderfully is an achievement that Lee should be damn proud of because Life of Pi is a beautiful and technically impressive film. Lee still won’t win though.
Got Robbed: Ben Affleck (ARGO) and Quentin Tarantino (DJANGO UNCHAINED)
Argo, to me, is the most complete film of all the movies nominated this year and Affleck deserves the credit for it. The guy has become an amazing director and for him to not get nominated is just a total black mark on the Academy Awards made even more egregious by the fact that every other awards show in the universe has seen fit to recognize Affleck’s talent.
Say what you will about the controversy that Django chalked up but it was a well made movie with Tarantino moving outside of his comfort zone for the second time in a row and really should have been recognized for his work. Why exactly are up to 10 movies nominated for Best Picture but the Best Director category is till keeping the nomination list so small?
The Nominees: AMOUR, ARGO, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD, DJANGO UNCHAINED, LES MISERABLES, LIFE OF PI, LINCOLN, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK, ZERO DARK THIRTY
Will Win: Lincoln
The Academy loves stodgy, dull movies that feature a bunch of white guys talking a lot. Throw in that its directed by Steven Spielberg and you have your Best Picture Winner right here.
Should Win: Argo
The Academy snubbed Affleck in the directing category for a reason and I don’t see them admitting their mistake by allowing Argo to win but it should. Of all of the films nominated it was the most complete film and was able to take real life events and make them interesting and exciting unlike a certain movie about the 16th President.
Got Robbed: Moonrise Kingdom
I don’t use the word delightful much in life but this move was exactly that and I am gobsmacked (a word I actually do use quite often) by the film and it’s director (Wes Anderson) being overlooked. At least it got a Best Screenplay nom but that really isn’t enough.