Will Win: Greta Gerwig, LADYBIRD
I have the feeling that this is the category that the Academy will use to make the proclamation that they are “hip and embrace diversity” by picking a woman Indie director to win. I don’t think Jordan Peele will get it because there is a really silly bit of elitist group-think in the voter base that considers GET OUT to not really be an “Oscar Worthy Film” but instead a genre film. Which leaves Gerwig’s work on LADYBIRD which I thought was a really well made film and I enjoyed it immensely but really pales in comparison to the director that really deserves this award this year.
Should Win: Christoper Nolan, DUNKIRK
In terms of difficulty and actual technical achievement in the field of directing, there is no other film to compare (THE SHAPE OF WATER would be a distant second) to what Christopher Nolan did in DUNKIRK. DUNKIRK is a wonder to behold and the work that Nolan did to make everything so vividly real cannot be ignored. But it will be sadly.
Got Snubbed: Sean Baker, THE FLORIDA PROJECT
See above, folks.